“Science is not a collection of facts, but a constant struggle with […] nature.” – attributed to Judea Pearl
“[…] and nature’s choice is usually entirely unknown to the statistician.” – Abraham Wald (1949): Statistical decision functions. Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 20:165–205. Page 173.
Thanks for your interest in my research.
I am a statistician working on reliable machine learning. In particular, I try to incorporate epistemic modeling uncertainty into adaptive machine learning methods such as self-training, superset learning or Bayesian optimization.
Research Interests
- All things Bayesian
- Imprecise Probabilities
- Generalized Bayes
- Imprecise Gaussian Processes
- Optimization
- Weak Supervision
- Sampling Theory
- … 1
Publications
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Kiet Q. H. Vo, Abbavaram Gowtham Reddy, Julian Rodemann, Siu Lun Chau, Krikamol Muandet: Off-Policy Evaluation with Strategic Agents via Local Disclosure. ICML 2026
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Julian Rodemann, Unai Fischer-Abaigar, James Bailie, Krikamol Muandet: Performative Learning Theory. ICML 2026
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Chongsheng Zhang, Hao Wang, Zelong Yu, Esteban Garces Arias, Julian Rodemann, Zhanshuo Zhang, Qilong Li, Gaojuan Fan, Krikamol Muandet, Christian Heumann: Self-Reinforcing Controllable Synthesis of Rare Relational Data via Bayesian Calibration. ACL Findings 2026
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Julian Rodemann, Alexander Marquard, Thomas Augustin, Michele Caprio: Self-Supervised Laplace Approximation for Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification. Transactions on Machine Learning Research 2026
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Xabier Gonzalez-Garcia, Siu Lun Chau, Julian Rodemann, Michele Caprio, Krikamol Muandet, Humberto Bustince, Sébastien Destercke, Eyke Hüllermeier, Yusuf Sale: Quantification of Credal Uncertainty: A Distance-Based Approach. UAI 2026
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Yuanhao Ding, Esteban Garces Arias, Meimingwei Li, Julian Rodemann, Matthias Aßenmacher, Danlu Chen, Gaojuan Fan, Christian Heumann, Chongsheng Zhang: GUARD: Glocal Uncertainty-Aware Robust Decoding for Effective and Efficient Open-Ended Text Generation. EMNLP Findings 2025
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Esteban Garces Arias, Hannah Blocher, Julian Rodemann, Matthias Aßenmacher, Christoph Jansen:Statistical Multicriteria Evaluation of LLM-Generated Text. INLG (17th International Natural Language Generation Conference) 2025
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Esteban Garces Arias, Julian Rodemann, Christian Heumann: The Geometry of Creative Variability: How Credal Sets Expose Calibration Gaps in Language Models. EMNLP Workshop on Uncertainty-Aware NLP (UncertaiNLP) 2025
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Julian Rodemann, Federico Croppi, Philipp Arens, Yusuf Sale, Julia Herbinger, Eyke Hüllermeier, Bernd Bis- chl, Thomas Augustin, Conor J. Walsh, Giuseppe Casalicchio: Explaining Bayesian Optimization by Shapley Values Facilitates Human-AI Collaboration, European Conference on Machine Learning and Principles and Practice of Knowledge Discovery in Databases ECML-PKDD (forthcoming), Porto, Portugal, 2025
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Esteban Garces Arias, Hannah Blocher, Julian Rodemann, Meimingwei Li, Christian Heumann, Matthias Aßenmacher: Towards Better Open-Ended Text Generation: A Multicriteria Evaluation Framework. ACL Workshop on Generation, Evaluation & Metrics (GEM) Workshop, co-located with ACL 2025
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Valentin Margraf, Jonas Hanselle, Julian Rodemann, Marcel Wever, Sebastian Vollmer, Eyke Hüllermeier: Imprecise Acquisitions in Bayesian Optimization. Epistemic Intelligence in Machine Learning Workshop at EurIPS 2025
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Julian Rodemann, Christoph Jansen, Georg Schollmeyer (2024): Reciprocal Learning. Neural Information Processing Systems NeurIPS 2024.
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Christoph Jansen2, Georg Schollmeyer2, Julian Rodemann2, Hannah Blocher2, Thomas Augustin (2024): Statistical Multicriteria Benchmarking via the GSD-Front. Neural Information Processing Systems NeurIPS (Spotlight) 2024.
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Esteban Garces Arias, Julian Rodemann, Meimingwei Li, Christian Heumann, Matthias Aßenmacher (2024): Adaptive Contrastive Search: Uncertainty-Guided Decoding for Open-Ended Text Generation. Conference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing EMNLP Findings, Miami, USA, forthcoming.
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Julian Rodemann, Thomas Augustin (2024): Imprecise Bayesian Optimization. Knowledge-Based Systems 2024, Elsevier.
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Stefan Dietrich, Julian Rodemann, Christoph Jansen (2024): Semi-Supervised Learning guided by the Generalized Bayes Rule under Soft Revision. 11th International Conference on Soft Methods in Probability and Statistics 2024 SMPS, Salzburg, Austria.
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Julian Rodemann (2024): Towards Bayesian Data Selection 5th Workshop on Data-Centric Machine Learning Research DMLR at ICML 2024.
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Julian Rodemann2, Hannah Blocher2 (2024): Partial Rankings of Optimizers. International Conference on Learning Representations ICLR 2024, Tiny Papers Track, Vienna, Austria.
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Malte Nalenz, Julian Rodemann, Thomas Augustin (2024): Learning De-Biased Regression Trees and Forests from Complex Samples. Machine Learning, Springer.
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Julian Rodemann (2023): Pseudo-Label Selection Is a Decision Problem (Short Paper). 46th German Conference on Artificial Intelligence KI, Berlin, Germany. LNAI, Springer.
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Julian Rodemann, Jann Goschenhofer, Emilio Dorigatti, Thomas Nagler, Thomas Augustin (2023): Approximately Bayes-Optimal Pseudo-Label Selection. 39th Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence UAI, Pittsburgh, USA. PMLR.
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Christoph Jansen, Georg Schollmeyer, Hannah Blocher, Julian Rodemann, Thomas Augustin (2023): Robust Statistical Comparison of Random Variables with Locally Varying Scale of Measurement. 39th Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence UAI, Pittsburgh, USA. PMLR.
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Julian Rodemann, Christoph Jansen, Georg Schollmeyer, Thomas Augustin (2023): In All Likelihood(s): Robust Selection of Pseudo-Labeled Data. 13th International Symposium on Imprecise Probabilities: Theories and Applications ISIPTA, Oviedo, Spain. PMLR.
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Alexander Marquard, Julian Rodemann, Thomas Augustin (2023): An Empirical Study of Prior-Data Conflicts in Bayesian Neural Networks. 13th International Symposium on Imprecise Probabilities: Theories and Applications ISIPTA (Poster Abstract), Oviedo, Spain.
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Julian Rodemann, Thomas Augustin, Rianne de Heide (2023): Interpreting Generalized Bayesian Inference by Generalized Bayesian Inference. 13th International Symposium on Imprecise Probabilities: Theories and Applications ISIPTA (Poster Abstract), Oviedo, Spain.
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Julian Rodemann, Dominik Kreiss, Eyke Hüllermeier, Thomas Augustin (2022): Levelwise Data Disambiguation by Cautious Superset Classification. 15th International Conference on Scalable Uncertainty Management SUM, Paris, France. LNAI, Springer.
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Julian Rodemann, Thomas Augustin (2022): Accounting for Gaussian Process Imprecision in Bayesian Optimization. 3 9th International Symposium on Integrated Uncertainty in Knowledge Modelling and Decision Making IUKM, Ishikawa, Japan. LNAI, Springer.
Some Talks and Posters
- Julian Rodemann (2025): Statistical Incentive-Aware AI Alignment. Stanford Trustworthy AI Research (STAIR) Lab, Stanford University, USA.
- Julian Rodemann (2025): Imprecise Bayesian Optimization. Epistemic AI Group, TU Delft, Netherlands.
- Julian Rodemann (2025): How Shapley Values Can Foster Human-AI Collaboration: A Case Study on Exosuit Personalization. Department of Computer Science, Universität des Saarlandes, Saarbrücken, Germany.
- Julian Rodemann, Christoph Jansen, Georg Schollmeyer, James Bailie (2025): On Generalization from Self-Selected Samples. Second Workshop on Machine Learning under Weakly Structured Information, Tübingen AI Center, Germany.
- Julian Rodemann (2025): Reciprocal Learning: A Unifying Perspective on Some Learning Paradigms. Department of Statistics, London School of Economics (LSE), London, United Kingdom.
- Julian Rodemann, Christoph Jansen, Georg Schollmeyer, James Bailie (2025): Reciprocal Learning. DAGStat - Seventh Joint Statistical Meeting, Berlin, Germany.
- Julian Rodemann, Christoph Jansen, Georg Schollmeyer (2025): Reciprocal Learning. DAGStat - Seventh Joint Statistical Meeting, Berlin, Germany.
- Julian Rodemann (2025): Prior Misspecification in Bayesian Optimization. CISPA Helmholtz Center for Information Security, Saarbrücken, Germany.
- Julian Rodemann (2025): Semi-Supervised Learning Guided by the Generalized Bayes Rule. KleinLab, Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT), Germany.
- Julian Rodemann (2025): Reciprocal Learning. Explainable Machine Learning Group, Technical University of Munich (TUM) / Helmholtz Munich, Germany.
- Julian Rodemann (2024): Reciprocal Learning. Optimization of Machine Learning Systems Group, University of Basel, Switzerland.
- Julian Rodemann (2024): Beyond Static Machine Learning. Finnish Center for Artificial Intelligence (FCAI), Aalto University, Finland.
- Julian Rodemann (2024): Reciprocal Learning. Department of Statistics, Harvard University, Cambridge, USA.
- Julian Rodemann (2024): Reciprocal Learning. Seminar für Statistik (SfS), ETH Zürich, Switzerland.
- Julian Rodemann (2024): Explaining Bayesian Optimization by Shapley Values Facilitates Human-AI Collaboration. Integreat - Norwegian Centre for Knowledge-driven Machine Learning, University of Oslo & UiT Arctic University of Norway.
- Julian Rodemann, Christoph Jansen, Georg Schollmeyer (2024): Can Reciprocal Learning Converge? First Workshop on Machine Learning under Weakly Structured Information, Munich, Germany.
- Julian Rodemann, Federico Croppi, Philipp Arens, Yusuf Sale, Julia Herbinger, Eyke Hüllermeier, Bernd Bischl, Thomas Augustin, Conor J. Walsh, Giuseppe Casalicchio (2024): Explaining Bayesian Optimization by Shapley Values Facilitates Human-AI Collaboration. Annual Summer Retreat, Department of Statistics, Herrsching, Germany.
- Malte Nalenz, Julian Rodemann, Thomas Augustin (2023): De-Biased Regression Trees for Complex Data. Asian Conference on Machine Learning (ACML), Istanbul, Turkey.
- Julian Rodemann, Thomas Augustin, Rianne de Heide (2023): Interpreting Generalized Bayesian Inference by Generalized Bayesian Inference. ISIPTA 2023
- Alexander Marquardt, Julian Rodemann, Thomas Augustin (2023): An Empirical Study of Prior-Data Conflicts in Bayesian Neural Networks. ISIPTA 2023.
- Julian Rodemann, Jann Goschenhofer, Emilio Dorigatti, Thomas Nagler, Thomas Augustin (2023): Approximately Bayes-Optimal Pseudo Label Selection. Poster accepted for the Fifth Symposium on Advances in Approximate Bayesian Inference AABI, co-located with ICML 2023.
- Julian Rodemann (2023): Learning Under Weak Supervision: Insights from Decision Theory. Young Statistician’s Lecture Series (YSLS). International Biometric Society (IBS) Early Career Working Group, Germany.
- Malte Nalenz, Julian Rodemann, Thomas Augustin (2022): De-biased Regression Trees for Complex Data. Statistical Week by the German Statistical Society (DStatG) in Münster, Germany.
- Julian Rodemann, Sebastian Fischer, Malte Nalenz, Lennart Schneider, Thomas Augustin (2022): Not All Data Are Created Equal - Lessons from Sampling Theory for Adaptive Machine Learning. Poster presented at ICSDS 2022 hosted by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (IMS).
- Julian Rodemann (2022): Prior-RObust Bayesian Optimization (PROBO). DAGStat Joint Statistical Meeting in Hamburg, Germany.
- Julian Rodemann, Thomas Augustin (2022): A Deep Dive Into BO Sensitivity and PROBO. Young Statistician’s Lecture Series (YSLS). IBS Early Career Working Group, Germany.
- Julian Rodemann, Dominik Kreiss, Thomas Augustin, Eyke Hüllermeier (2022): Levelwise Data Disambiguation. Annual Summer Retreat, Department of Statistics, Germany.
- Julian Rodemann, Thomas Augustin (2021): Accounting for Imprecision of Model Specification in Bayesian Optimization. Poster presented at ISIPTA, Granada, Spain.
- Julian Rodemann (2021): On Prior-Robustness in Bayesian Optimization. Annual Summer Retreat, Department of Statistics, Germany.
- Julian Rodemann (2017): Clustering lifecycles. Villigst Machine Learning Undergraduate Workshop hosted by Max-Planck-Institute for Intelligent Systems (MPI-IS) Tübingen, Germany.